A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
