War-torn Myanmar Votes in Broadly Condemned 'Sham' Election.

Election materials in Burma
Myanmar's military is holding a staggered election over the next month.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, numerous figures imprisoned and as much as half of the country unable to participate because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is conducting a staggered election nearly half a decade after it seized power in a coup, which ignited massive protests and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the election under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a film endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats urging people to boycott the polls.

The army has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year after relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the results in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the international community," a junta spokesman told a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".

Sarah Guzman
Sarah Guzman

A data scientist and betting strategist with over a decade of experience in sports analytics and predictive modeling.

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